Theoretical aspects of forecasting

 

Forecasting is a special scientific research that is based on the search for prospects for the development of phenomena or processes. The concept of "forecasting", if translated from Greek, means "knowledge in advance", that is, it is a process of creating a forecast.

The method of foresight (forecasting) is widely used in the modern world. Forecasting is used in various fields: economics, management, sports, industry, etc. One can draw preliminary conclusions about various processes, phenomena, reactions, and operations using extrapolation and tendency. The complexity of the forecasting problem is determined by the fact that changes in the life of society and external situations affect the research and the results of the forecast.

Forecasting is the anticipation of significant factors for organizations and companies. In addition, there is increased attention to forecasting significant parameters of the country's economy. Difficulties in making the most accurate forecasts are associated with constant changes in various spheres of life, for example, current legislation and its transformation, seasonal fluctuations, and natural disasters.

Forecasting methods can be divided into quantitative and qualitative ones. The qualitative method is based on expert opinion and is highly subjective.

And the quantitative method is based on data calculation. However, both methods are not designed to change in the future. And for a high-quality forecast, the ability to take into account changes in the situation in the future and fix the value of this factor on the result is a very important criterion.

The essence of forecasting is that through certain methods, all available information about the object of forecasting is processed and, thereby, an idea of the directions of development of this object is obtained, based on trend analysis.

Knowledge about the future is the result of people's cognitive activity, it can be expressed in various forms:

- Prediction based on logical conclusions.

- Foresight based on knowledge about the development of an object's pattern.

Currently, there are 3 forms of foresight:

- scientific foresight, which includes the result of scientific theory, based on the laws studied by scientific methods in the development of nature, human thinking, and social life (weather forecasts, state development, etc.);

- unscientific foresight based on unreal (fantastic) relationships (clairvoyance, premonition, fortune-telling, predictions);

- empirical foresight is based on a person's everyday experience (a folk sign).

Scientific foresight is used in 3 forms:

- A hypothesis is a guess or an assumption that requires further proof. The hypothesis is only qualitative in nature.

- A forecast is a probabilistic judgment about the future condition of a research object, a special scientific study. The forecast, unlike the hypothesis, is not only qualitative, but also quantitative.

- A plan is the setting of clearly defined goals, as well as the anticipation of a specific detailed event(s) of the phenomena (objects) under study.

The socio-economic forecasts include the following development indicators:

- the macroeconomic situation;

- scientific and technical process;

- dynamics of production and consumption;

- standard and quality of life;

- foreign economic activity;

- environmental situation;

- healthcare systems, education and social security of society.

The basis of socio-economic forecasts is the knowledge of certain factors that determine the evolution of socio-economic processes and the quantitative dependencies of factors and indicators of economic development.

There are the following factors of forecasting importance:

- forecasting makes it possible to analyze economic, social, scientific and technical processes, as well as their prospects and trends;

- through forecasting, it is possible to study the objective interrelationships of socio-economic phenomena in the development of the national economy (specific conditions in a certain period of time); - it is possible to evaluate the object of forecasting;

- with the help of forecasting, it is possible to identify objective alternatives to the economic and social development of society;

- forecasting accumulates scientific material for further (informed) selection of appropriate solutions; - forecasting makes it possible to assess the consequences of decisions made.

Thus, we note that forecasting is one of the main management tools in the socio-economic system, as well as the process of setting goals and determining the actions necessary to achieve them. The result is a plan, a document that reflects goals, consistent actions to achieve them, their deadlines, necessary resources, and responsible persons.

The essence of forecasting lies in the fact that through certain methods, all available information about the object of forecasting is processed and, thereby, an idea of the directions of development of this object is obtained, based on trend analysis.